18 pip movement on USDCAD expected

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect a 18 pip movement on USDCAD within 2 hours following the event release at 15 Mar 23:50 UTC. We expect USDCAD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 15 Mar 23:50 UTC if the released value is > ¥-112.6B

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

19 Jan 23:50
17 Aug 23:50
19 May 23:50
18 Apr 23:50