66.67% probability that GBPUSD may trend downwards right now

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Australia, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards for the next 2 hours. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. This may happen because the released value is < A$8B Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

07 Jan 00:30
06 Oct 00:30
03 Sep 01:30
02 Jul 01:30