75% probability that EURUSD may trend downwards

Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in United States, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. This may happen if the released value is > -0.5%

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Feb 13:30
16 Oct 12:30
16 Jun 12:30