80% probability that EURUSD may trend downwards

Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in United States, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. This may happen if the released value is > 5%

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Jun 12:30
13 Sep 12:30
15 Aug 12:30
16 Jul 12:30