80% probability that EURUSD may trend downwards

Based on the last 12 Durable Goods Orders MoM events in United States, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. This may happen if the released value is < 2.8% Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

26 Apr 12:30
24 Mar 12:30
27 Jan 13:30
25 Sep 12:30