80% probability that NZDUSD may trend downwards

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Australia, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. This may happen if the released value is > A$7.9B

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

04 Feb 00:30
03 Dec 00:30
05 Nov 00:30
04 Jun 01:30