80% probability that SI may trend downwards

Based on the last 12 Durable Goods Orders MoM events in United States, we expect SI to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. This may happen if the released value is > 0.8%

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

23 Dec 13:30
27 Oct 12:30
25 Aug 12:30
25 Feb 13:30