Are you on the right side of Australia NAB Business Confidence news event?

Based on the last 12 NAB Business Confidence events in Australia, we expect AUDUSD to trend downwards. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards for 2 hours because the released value is < 23. A price movement of 15 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

10 Aug 01:30
08 Jun 01:30
13 Apr 01:30
27 Jan 00:30