Are you on the right side of Japan Balance of Trade news event?

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect USDCAD to trend upwards. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend upwards for 2 hours because the released value is < ¥-560B. A price movement of 21 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

19 Apr 23:50
22 Jan 23:50
19 Nov 23:50
20 Oct 23:50
18 Aug 23:50