Are you on the right side of Japan Balance of Trade news event?

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 16 Jun 23:50 if the released value is > ¥-970.8B. A price movement of 18 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

18 Feb 23:50
17 Dec 23:50
17 Sep 23:50
18 Jun 23:50