Are you on the right side of United States ISM Manufacturing PMI news event?

Based on the last 12 ISM Manufacturing PMI events in United States, we expect NZDUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 05 Jan 15:00 if the released value is < 56.6. A price movement of 38 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

01 Dec 15:00
01 Oct 14:00
01 Jun 14:00
03 Jan 15:00