Are you on the right side of United States Retail Sales MoM news event?

Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in United States, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards for 2 hours because the released value is < -0.3%. A price movement of 52 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 Jun 12:30
16 Mar 12:30
15 Jan 13:30
16 Dec 13:30
17 Nov 13:30
16 Sep 12:30