Are you on the right side of United States Retail Sales MoM news event?

Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in United States, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards. Based on these past events there is a 83.33% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards for 2 hours because the released value is < 1%. A price movement of 35 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

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15 May 12:30
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13 Dec 13:30