Trade with an edge around todays Australia NAB Business Confidence news event

Based on past Australia NAB Business Confidence news events there is a 83.33% chance of EURUSD trending upwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is < -1. A price movement of 19 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

14 Apr 01:30
10 Mar 01:00
11 Feb 00:30
28 Jan 00:30
08 Oct 00:30