Trade with an edge around todays United States Housing Starts news event

Based on past United States Housing Starts news events there is a 80% chance of NZDUSD trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > 1.169M. A price movement of 19 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

18 Mar 12:30
19 Feb 13:30
17 Jan 13:30
18 Sep 12:30