Want to know why GBPUSD is going downwards for the next 2 hours?

Based on past Japan Balance of Trade news events there is a 66.67% chance of GBPUSD trending downwards. We expect this to happen because the released value is < ¥-1509.7B. A price movement of 9 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

19 Apr 23:50
15 Mar 23:50
16 Feb 23:50
19 Oct 23:50
20 Jul 23:50
15 Jun 23:50