Want to know why GBPUSD is going downwards for the next 2 hours?

Based on past Australia Balance of Trade news events there is a 87.5% chance of GBPUSD trending downwards. We expect this to happen because the released value is > A$10.1B. A price movement of 26 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

04 Aug 01:30
02 Jun 01:30
05 May 01:30
03 Mar 00:30
02 Dec 00:30
04 Nov 00:30
05 Oct 00:30