What to trade around Australia Employment Change news event

Based on the last 12 Employment Change events in Australia, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 77.78% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 18 Feb 00:30 if the released value is > 40K. A price movement of 138 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

19 Nov 00:30
15 Oct 00:30
17 Sep 01:30
13 Aug 01:30
16 Apr 01:30
19 Mar 00:30
20 Feb 00:30