What to trade around Australia NAB Business Confidence news event

Based on the last 12 NAB Business Confidence events in Australia, we expect PL to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect PL to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 25 Jan 00:30 if the released value is > 10. A price movement of 1,100 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

12 Oct 00:30
10 May 01:30
09 Mar 00:30
09 Feb 00:30