What to trade around Australia NAB Business Confidence news event

Based on the last 12 NAB Business Confidence events in Australia, we expect USDCAD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 09 Jun 01:30 if the released value is > -32. A price movement of 6 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

12 May 01:30
12 Nov 00:30
13 Aug 01:30