What to trade around Australia NAB Business Confidence news event

Based on the last 12 NAB Business Confidence events in Australia, we expect EURUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 11 Aug 01:30 if the released value is > -1. A price movement of 25 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

14 Jul 01:30
09 Jun 01:30
12 May 01:30