What to trade around Euro Area ECB Interest Rate Decision news event

Based on the last 12 ECB Interest Rate Decision events in Euro Area, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 10 Dec 12:45 if the released value is = 0%. A price movement of 53 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

10 Sep 11:45
04 Jun 11:45
30 Apr 11:45
12 Mar 12:45
23 Jan 12:45
24 Oct 11:45
25 Jul 11:45
06 Jun 11:45