What to trade around Euro Area Industrial Production YoY news event

Based on the last 12 Industrial Production YoY events in Euro Area, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 13 Oct 09:00 if the released value is < 4.7%. A price movement of 11 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

12 Aug 09:00
14 Apr 09:00
15 Feb 10:00
12 Nov 10:00