What to trade around Germany Balance of Trade news event

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Germany, we could expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 04 May 06:00 if the released value is > €9.5B. A price movement of 20 pips could result.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

04 Apr 06:00
07 May 06:00