What to trade around Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash news event

Based on the last 12 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash events in Germany, we expect NZDUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 87.5% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 24 Jan 08:30 if the released value is > 57. A price movement of 16 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Dec 08:30
23 Nov 08:30
22 Oct 07:30
23 Jul 07:30
23 Jun 07:30
24 Mar 08:30
19 Feb 08:30