What to trade around Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index news event

Based on the last 12 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index events in Germany, we expect AUDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 85.71% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 12 Oct 09:00 if the released value is < 24. A price movement of 17 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

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13 Oct 09:00