What to trade around Japan Balance of Trade news event

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect AUDUSD to trend downwards right now. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards for the next 2 hours because the released value is > ¥-970.8B. A price movement of 12 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

18 Feb 23:50
17 Dec 23:50
17 Sep 23:50
18 Jun 23:50