What to trade around Japan Inflation Rate YoY news event

Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY events in Japan, we could expect BP to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect BP to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 23 Jun 23:30 if the released value is < 2.3%. A price movement of 6 pips could result. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

23 Sep 23:30
19 Aug 23:30