What to trade around Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index news event

Based on the last 12 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index events in Japan, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 30 Sep 23:50 if the released value is > -23. A price movement of 32 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

31 Mar 23:50
30 Sep 23:50
13 Dec 23:50
14 Dec 23:50
01 Oct 23:50