What to trade around United Kingdom Balance of Trade news event

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in United Kingdom, we expect USDCHF to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect USDCHF to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 14 Jul 06:00 if the released value is < £-0.8B. A price movement of 15 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

09 Apr 06:00
10 Dec 09:30
11 Nov 09:30