What to trade around United Kingdom Balance of Trade news event

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in United Kingdom, we expect AUDUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 12 Feb 07:00 if the released value is < £-4.2B. A price movement of 36 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

10 Dec 07:00
11 Sep 06:00
13 May 06:00
09 Apr 06:00