What to trade around United Kingdom Balance of Trade news event

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in United Kingdom, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 11 Feb 07:00 if the released value is > £ -3.1B. A price movement of 14 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

14 Jan 07:00
10 Dec 07:00
11 Nov 07:00
11 Jun 06:00
12 Mar 07:00