What to trade around United Kingdom Claimant Count Change news event

Based on the last 12 Claimant Count Change events in United Kingdom, we expect USDCAD to trend upwards right now. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend upwards for the next 2 hours because the released value is < 50K. A price movement of 61 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

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15 Sep 06:00
16 Jul 06:00
21 Apr 06:00
17 Mar 09:30