What to trade around United Kingdom Claimant Count Change news event

Based on the last 12 Claimant Count Change events in United Kingdom, we expect USDCHF to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect USDCHF to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 15 Jul 06:00 if the released value is < -120K. A price movement of 35 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 Jun 06:00
18 May 06:00
20 Apr 06:00
26 Jan 07:00
10 Nov 07:00
16 Jul 06:00