What to trade around United States Continuing Jobless Claims news event

Based on the last 12 Continuing Jobless Claims events in United States, we expect AUDUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 24 Sep 12:30 if the released value is < 12300K. A price movement of 23 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

13 Aug 12:30
06 Aug 12:30
23 Jul 12:30
16 Jul 12:30