What to trade around United States Continuing Jobless Claims news event

Based on the last 12 Continuing Jobless Claims events in United States, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 04 Jun 12:30 if the released value is > 20050K. A price movement of 26 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

21 May 12:30
07 May 12:30