What to trade around United States Durable Goods Orders MoM news event

Based on the last 12 Durable Goods Orders MoM events in United States, we expect USDCAD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 27 Oct 12:30 if the released value is > 0.5%. A price movement of 41 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

26 Aug 12:30
25 Jun 12:30
28 May 12:30
25 Mar 12:30
27 Feb 13:30
28 Jan 13:30