What to trade around United States Durable Goods Orders MoM news event

Based on the last 12 Durable Goods Orders MoM events in United States, we expect GBPUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 27 Sep 12:30 if the released value is > 0.7%. A price movement of 104 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

25 Aug 12:30
25 Feb 13:30
23 Dec 13:30
25 Nov 13:30