What to trade around United States Durable Goods Orders MoM news event

Based on the last 12 Durable Goods Orders MoM events in United States, we expect AUDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 27 Jan 13:30 if the released value is < -0.5%. A price movement of 18 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

24 Nov 13:30
27 Jul 12:30
24 Jun 12:30
24 Mar 12:30
27 Jan 13:30