What to trade around United States Housing Starts news event

Based on the last 12 Housing Starts events in United States, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 21 Jan 13:30 if the released value is > 1.56M. A price movement of 31 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Dec 13:30
17 Jul 12:30
18 Mar 12:30
19 Feb 13:30
17 Jan 13:30