What to trade around United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel news event

Based on the last 12 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel events in United States, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 85.71% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 12 Mar 15:00 if the released value is > 78.5. A price movement of 49 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

11 Dec 15:00
16 Oct 14:00
14 Aug 14:00
12 Jun 14:00
15 May 14:00
13 Mar 14:00