What to trade around United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index news event

Based on the last 12 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index events in United States, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 20 May 12:30 if the released value is < 43. A price movement of 12 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Dec 13:30
20 Aug 12:30