What to trade around United States Retail Sales MoM news event

We expect USDCHF to trend upwards for the next 2 hours. Based on these past United States Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 83.33% chance of this. We expect this to happen because the released value is < 0.1%. A price movement of 54 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

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14 Apr 12:30
14 Jan 13:30
15 Dec 13:30
17 Aug 12:30